European Regional Science Association
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European Regional Science Association
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The abstract for paper number 5:
Mohammad Sharif Karimi, Researcher in m&p organization, Sanandaj, Iran
Non oil export supply model in iran (carpet, pistachio)
Nowadays, export has an important role in economic development of developing countries, as a strategic for growth. Non-oil exports had an important role during the years in Iran, because of restriction of oil resources and extra fluctuation of oil prices, two of most important Iranian non-oil export are carpet and pistachio. In this research, I tried to estimate the supply functions of carpet and pistachio in Iran. Then I examined the effective factors, economic policy and world market on export supply of these goods. Performance method I used econometric methods (ols, wls) for estimation of supply function. export supply of good is a linear logaritmic function of current and past ratio of these goods export price to domestic price, exchange rate, product capacity and supply shocks. It defines as: log Xs = B0 + B1 log (Px / (Pb.Er)) + B2 log ((X-1) / (Pb-1.Er-1) + B3log YR + B4 log SSR + B5T. that Xs is the export , Pb is domestic price in national currency, px is export price , ER is exchange rate in producer country in dollar, YR is produce of selective output in the country, SSR is supply side shock and t is dynamic variable which imply Term change. In this research, I used the data of 28 years from 1970 to 1998. Export price is one of the most important variables in decision making for export. When export price rise, I except to increase in export volume. In another side, as domestic price increase, export price increase too, then the competitive power of carpet and pistachio decrease in International market I assumed ratio of export price to domestic price multiple to exchange rate as relative price. Exchange rate as an importand variables in non-oil export. When exchange rate increase or national currency depreciate, export will decrease. In model, cooficients B1 , B2 are price elasticity of export supply, because of the logaritmic form I found that when domestic production of selective goods increase, the export supply will increase too. Conclusion 1- price elasiticities of export supply of carpet and pistachio are high. This is a positive factor for export development of these goods. 2- Pistachio export increase because of excess capacity of production, but there is no logical relation between export and production of carpet. 3- Exchange rate has a positive and direct effect on carpet and pistachio export. 4- Laws and regulation of export will effect the volume of export.
Unfortunately full paper has not been submitted.