European Regional Science Association
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European Regional Science Association
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The abstract for paper number 429:
David Boyce, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, USA, Huw Williams, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom
Urban Travel Forecasting Models in the UK and USA: The State of the Art versus the State of the Practice
The concepts and conventions that we now associate with the term, urban travel forecasting models, began to be structured, formulated and implemented in the early 1950s, suggesting that we are now approaching the golden anniversary of this field. For this and other good reasons, it seems timely and appropriate to take stock of the current status of these models and their application in transport planning.
The authors are undertaking a substantial review of this field as found in their own countries, the UK and the USA, about which they have considerable experience and interest. This paper represents work in progress on a study design, as well as preliminary observations about the state of the art and the state of the practice. An initial list of questions to be considered is the following:
1.What are the requirements for urban travel forecasts, including efficiency evaluation measures, in the UK and the USA? 2.What is the status and potential role of theory in meeting these requirements? 3.What empirical evidence (data) is needed to support such model development? 4.What is the current status of models in practice in terms of software availability and its application? 5.How do model requirements and model applications vary in different policy, program, and geographical contexts?
Unfortunately full paper has not been submitted.