European Regional Science Association
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European Regional Science Association
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The abstract for paper number 373:
Matías Mayor Fernández, Ana Jesús López Menéndez, Universidad de Oviedo, Oviedo-Asturias, Spain
Economic growth patterns and shift-share analysis. An application to the EU regions
The identification of economic growth patterns is extremely useful in regional analysis. Several statistical methods can be applied in order to detect spatial and sectoral patterns, including multivariate methods, input-output techniques and shift-share analysis. The shift-share technique was first developed as a method for decomposing the variations of economic magnitudes (mainly employment and production), quantifying the so-called national, structural and competitive effects and thus explaining the differences of growth between regions and/or sectors. More recently the initial descriptive formulation has been extended leading to a stochastic shift-share model.
In this paper we propose the use of the shift-share analysis in order to identify the potential of different economic activities, mainly those related with the new information society. The application of this method to both production and employment allows the identification of growth patterns within the european regions, also providing useful information for the construction of leading indicators and the forecasting of the expected evolution.
Unfortunately full paper has not been submitted.