European Regional Science Association
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European Regional Science Association
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The abstract for paper number 281:
Ioulia Kondili, PhD student in the University of the Aegean, Department of Environment, Lesvos, Greece
Modeling the complexities of a territorial space
Models are considered to be methods for the representation of the reality by using a number of limited parameters, which are capable to explain in the best degree the reality under examination. This restriction in parameters is necessary in order to have an understanding of the complexities that take place in a territory. Furthermore, models can help us analyze the behavior of the territorial elements as well as their relationships.
In order to model the complexities that determine the behavior of a region in time and space it is important to develop an integrated model of the most important elements. In order to do that we must have a very good understanding of the regions structure.
Systems thinking provides an effective framework for the analysis of a territory, as it examines the relationships between the different components of the system. If we consider a region as a system, then we can represent it as a totality of interlinked subsystems, formed by their own interrelated elements. These subsystems determine the regions behavior. A region as a system can be seen as a combination of 3 subsystems: environmental, economic and societal. Each subsystem can be further analyzed to those elements that are the most efficient for the explanation of the subsystems behavior. But regions are not closed systems, detached from the rest of the world. As open systems, they are also affected be the elements of their outside environment, and as a consequence these parameters have to be taken under consideration when developing a comprehensive spatial structure.
While systems analysis helps the understanding of the environmental and socio-economic reality, system dynamics supports the study of the complicated systems dynamic behavior. The latter is a simulation methodology providing dynamic systemic models which constitute a web of stocks and flows. Several modeling software exist for simulation purposes.
STELLA is a software that provides the possibility of a full and analytic modeling of the subsystems components as well as the delineation of their interlinkages. Using this software the regional elements quantification will contribute to the development of a dynamic regional model.
The model will be used to determine indicators, which will be able to provide the information needed for the monitoring and assessment of the state of the hole system as well as of its subsystems. The quantification of the hole system will provide the opportunity for simulation and predictions in time for the regions behavior.
Unfortunately full paper has not been submitted.