European Regional Science Association
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European Regional Science Association
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The abstract for paper number 261:
Ioulia Zaitseva, Ph.D, Project manager, The Instiutute for Urban Economics, Moscow, Russia
Some aspects of socio-economic forecasting for municipalities
This paper discusses the questions of data availability for socio-economic forecasting and methodical approaches to a forecasting on local level.
New Budget Code for Russian Federation, consummated since 1st January 2000, has been established necessity to elaborate the forecast of socio-economic development for the level of municipalities.
The first and major problem for elaboration of forecasting methodic is almost complete lack of dataware. Although State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) in 1995 created the list of indicators, characterizing the socio-economic development, but this document is not working. Statistical data is absent by most part of municipalities or represent only for last 3 years at best.
Single official source of data about socio-economic development of municipalities is the handbook “Regions of Russia”, which is publishing by Goskomstat of Russia. It includes information by cities - capitals of subjects of the Russian Federation and cities with population more then 100 thousand.
This circumstance applies restrictions on application of many traditional forecasting methods.
Unfortunately full paper has not been submitted.