European Regional Science Association
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European Regional Science Association
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The abstract for paper number 165:
Seyİt Köse, Abant İzzet Baysal University
, Bolu, Turkey
Convergence or Divergence in Per Capita Income across the Turkish Provinces: Implications for the Preparation Process towards the EU Membership
Although various incentives to private sector and large investment expenditures for public infrastructure in less developed provinces and regions have been provided by government sector in Turkey, enormous size of disparities in per capita incomes across provinces and regions has still become a crucial handicap today. This paper, from various dimensions and exploiting the most recent data, examines whether per capita incomes across provinces and regions of Turkey have converged or diverged between 1987 and 2001. Adopting R. Barro & X. Sala-i-Martin type of specifications, we test β-convergence in absolute and conditional forms and check out σ-convergence tendency. On the other hand, considering the criticism and methodology of D. Quah and his followers, we adopt the Markov chain rule and employ a transition matrix to see the cross-section distribution dynamics of the convergence or divergence process. The findings from these various specifications have different implications considering the regional development policy and full membership process toward the EU. Given that the EC have compared per capita income levels in terms of PPP across the NUTS2 regions, the differential between Turkey and the EU mean and especially its less developed nations has been indeed somewhat less than appeared. On the other hand, as far as the Eastern and Central European Enlargement proceeds the EU mean declines since per capita income in terms of PPP in those new entrants are lower than the EU mean. On the other hand, if the Turkish economy can use the resources properly during the preparation process and sustain a stable growth rate higher than the EU, then the overall gap can be diminished further in a decade. Furthermore, if, rather than converging, a couple of most populated provinces are diverging from the rest, then a great fraction of population can become redundant of (at least Objective 1) aids from the Structural Funds after a reasonable period.
Unfortunately full paper has not been submitted.