Aldrik Bakema, MNP-RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Spatial modeling for environmental assessment studies with LUMOS (Land Use Modeling System) (assigned to theme
The Netherlands is a relatively small and densely polulated country. The location of the various forms of landuse relative to each other for a large part determines the impacts of land use and land use change on the environment and the effect on nature areas, via different pathways. Examples are the location of agricultural activities and nature areas relative to each other (via emission and deposition of NHx), the location of future infrastructure relative to housing locations (via noise and particulate matter), the relative location of housing and working locations (effects on accessibility, congestion and vehicle kilometers) and the influence of new infrastructure on defragmentation of nature areas. In environmental assessment studies it is therefore imperative to take into account the location and spatial structure of land use forms. In scenario analysis, where various possible future developments are compared with each other, a method is needed to translate possible future macroeconomic and demographic developments to spatially explicit views of the resulting land use. This article focuses on the way land use models and nature and environmental models are used in conjunction with each other to explore the effect on nature and the environment of possible future developments in the Netherlands. It shows that integrated assesment studies in the Netherlands need a coherent set of models to translate future developments into land use maps that can be used consecutively to feed the models that calculate the effects on environment and nature areas. It also shows the strengths and weaknesses of the models currently used for this purpose.
 | Conference organized through conf-vienna
(copyright Gunther Maier) |