Judith Borsboom-van Beurden, Arno Bouwman, Wideke Boersma, researcher, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Constructing the Future - an Exploration of Changed Land Use Patterns in the Netherlands (assigned to theme
A spatial elaboration of scenarios developed for the Sustainability Outlook shows that both the rural and the urban physical environment will change thoroughly during the next decades. Increased land use by housing, employment and leisure will contribute to further urbanisation, especially in the centre of The Netherlands. This will result in deterioration of nature areas and valuable landscapes, depending upon the degree of government protection assumed in a scenario. Further scale enlargement and capital-intensification of the mode of production in agriculture may also threaten valuable landscapes. Besides, fairly large areas of arable farming will be superseded by cattle breeding. Finally it appears that spatial measures of water management can pose many restrictions to new urbanisation locations as well as agriculture. The Land Use Scanner model has been used for this elaboration. Land use claims have been derived from dedicated models such as housing models or have been laid out by experts. Experts also drafted knowledge rules for the allocation of future land use. Results in the form of maps, illustrations and 3D animations show the range of possible futures. This paper discusses the methods used for spatial elaboration of qualitative storylines, the main results of the project and plans for future research.
 | Conference organized through conf-vienna
(copyright Gunther Maier) |