Jan Rotmans, Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, DRIFT
Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, Derk Loorbach, DRIFT, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
transitions - managing social complexity (assigned to theme
Sustainable development will require transitions because a number of social systems, such as the energy-supply or agriculture, are ‘locked’ into sub-optimal configurations (NMP4, 2001). Transitions are defined as ‘multi-level, multi-phase processes of structural change of a societal (sub)system as a result of interacting technological, economic, social and institutional changes’(Rotmans et al, 2000). The transition concept is rooted in complex systems’ theory and provides a novel way of analysing societal change as co-evolutionary, emergent and self-organizing processes. This complex systems’ perspective of society allows for comprehensive and integrated analyses of social transitions, in which transition patterns could be identified and monitored. These transition patterns consist of interrelated structures, institutions, practices, behaviour, policies and surprises, which is partly autonomous and can be partly influenced. Such a transitional pattern analysis includes a multiple scale analysis (macro, meso and micro), and multiple stage analysis (multiple phases). Such an integrated transition-analysis will provide the basis for developing transition management. Transition management is a new form of governance that builds on insights from complex systems’ theory and the co-evolutionary dynamics of complex social systems (Rotmans et al, 2004). The paper will elaborate on the management principles underlying transition management, and link these to the complex social systems’ perspective and recent insights from governance literature. This provides a multi-level, multi-phase transition management framework that can be used to analyse transition management in a historical context as well as to develop new transition management strategies. In addition, an operational transition management model in which the central steering-instrument is the transition arena, will be presented. The operational model is based on the governance-rules (principles) underlying transition management and derives tools and methods both from governance theory as well as from current policy practice itself. The energy-transition approach as adopted by the Ministry of Economic Affairs will serve as case-study to illustrate both theoretical approach as well as the operational practice of transition management. It will identify the social dynamics that resulted from the ministries’ approach and assess to what extent the complex societal’ dynamics have been taken into account and accordingly to what extend steering efforts have been targeted at these. This case will show the functionality of an integrated complex systems analysis for transition management and the need for linking content to process in managing complex transitions to sustainability.
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(copyright Gunther Maier) |