Roberto Camagni
Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy, Roberta Capello
Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy, Ugo Fratesi, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering
Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
A Quantitative Model for the Measurement of Regional Growth in the New Europe (assigned to theme
Since may 1st 2004 the European Union changed its geographical borders, and enlarged its territory including new National Economies having very different territorial and economic situations with respect to the old EU15. The challenge that the New Europe will face drastically in the near future relates to the capacity to grow taking into consideration an increased economic and territorial disparity of its regions; the revision of Structural Funds, and all economic policy related issues, need an ex-ante evaluation in order to measure their impacts in terms of efficiency and cohesion. This paper presents a first step of an ambitious research project, which has the aim to provide territorial scenarios of the New Europe in 15 years, developed under different hypotheses on the most important driving forces of change in the fields of economy, demographic, society, technology and institutions. The territorial scenarios have the aim to present new levels of per capita income in the different regions of the EU27 Countries, and therefore to measure new regional disparities. This paper is the first step towards the implementation of the territorial scenarios. Its aim is to present the quantitative model which will be applied for the simulations. In particular, the aims of the paper are the following: -to present the conceptual framework beyond the model, which stresses the importance of material and non-material (soft) resources for local development; social capital and relational capital are emphasised as strategic for the competitiveness of a local economy; -to present the analytical specification of the econometric model used; -to present the database and indicators built for such a purpose, in time series and cross-section; -to present some preliminary results on the calibration of the model.
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