Frank Geels
Department of Technology Management, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, Johan Schot
Department of Technology Management, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, Geert Verbong, Eindhoven University of Technology
Department of Technology Management, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
A long-term historical analysis of path dependencies and changes in the Dutch electricity system - Hindrances and possibilities for future energy transitions (assigned to theme
Historical research is important to explore future transitions, for instance in the electricity system. The reason is that that existing socio-technical systems are locked-in in many ways (e.g. in terms of cognitive routines, competencies, social networks, sunk investments, vested interests, and behavioural patterns). Existing systems are characterised by path dependencies with deep historical roots. This means that research of future transitions should not simply start in the present and extrapolate promising innovations (e.g. learning curves), but take into account the path dependencies in the existing regime. So historical research is necessary to say something sensible about the future. In the article we will substantiate this claim for the energy transition to renewable energy, much talked about in the Netherlands. We will make a long-term historical analysis of developments in the electricity system in the Netherlands (1970-2004), and draw conclusions about hindrances and possibilities for future energy transitions. We will use the multi-level perspective for this analysis: a) new innovations (variety) emerges in niches, b) the socio-technical regime refers to the shared set of rules shared by actors that maintain and reproduce elements of the existing socio-technical system, c) socio-technical landscape which stands for external macro developments (cultural, economic, political, environmental) that influence the system. In our analysis we will pay attention to landscape developments, e.g. oil prices, Tsjernobyl disaster, rise of environmental problems (acidification, climate change), liberalisation, Europeanisation and to niche developments, both emerging promising niches (wind, biomass) and failed niches (e.g. coal gasification, centralised manure digestion). But the main emphasis in the article will be on developments at the regime level. We will show that the energy transition has it’s roots in the 1960s, but really took off in the late 1980s. Since then governmental and institutional rules have changed (liberalisation, internationalisation), the social network has changed and new actors have emerged (e.g. distribution companies, international energy companies), market dynamics have changed (take overs, consolidation of market structure, creation of market of green electricity) and some new technologies have emerged (especially gas turbines and CHP). Since the mid-1990s climate change and renewable energy have come in as additional dimensions in the (ongoing) energy transition. With regard to the future, we will argue that the electricity regime is currently in flux with much uncertainty about the future. There are some drivers that point in the direction of sustainability, but these are not the only drivers, and (maybe) not the most important ones. The heavy investments in grids and the efforts of the EU to create transnational networks are drivers that are often overlooked in the policy debate. We see many problems and hindrances for a future transition towards renewable energy, although also some opportunities. Furthermore, and somewhat paradoxically, the presence of many alternative, renewable energy technologies is both an opportunity and a hindrance. The literature on transitions emphasises the importance of niches as something good, e.g. to create variety and the seeds for system innovations. But too many niches also create uncertainty, something that prevents major committments and investments.
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