Roger Vickerman, Centre for European, Regional and Transport Economics
University of Kent
, Canterbury, United Kingdom
Evaluating the wider economic impacts of congestion charging schemes - the limitations of conventional modelling approaches (assigned to theme
Congestion charging has been seen a useful interim stage in the implementation of more general road pricing schemes in urban areas. As has been shown in the case of one of the largest of these schemes to be introduced so far, that in London, such schemes are very successful in reducing the volume of traffic, particularly private car traffic, and in effecting a transfer to those modes such as bus which benefit from reduced congestion. However, the wider economic impacts of such schemes remain more ambiguous. Charging does not only result in mode-switching but also in the redistribution of journeys to other destinations or to the suppression of trips altogether. This can have negative consequences on the economy of central city areas, especially the retailing sector. On the other hand the reduction of congestion lowers the costs for city centre businesses making them more competitive. Most land-use transport models find it difficult to incorporate such longer term dynamic redistributive effects and hence do not provide a comprehensive guide to the likely impacts; and it is these impacts which are most likely to form the subject of debate over the acceptability of congestion charging. In this paper we review the evidence from the introduction of congestion charging, in particular from the London Congestion Charge in the light of the ex ante modelling, and the modelling carried out for the proposed Edinburgh scheme. In particular we focus on the changing economic and land-use implications and assess the extent to which existing models have to be supplemented in order to provide acceptable guidance to policy makers and to inform the wider constituency of stakeholders on likely impacts. The paper concludes with recommendations on the appropriate use of models in policy making.
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