Philip S. Morrison, Institute of Geography, School of Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, Wellington , New Zealand
Migration and decline - Modelling the migration dynamics of Independent Urban Communities (assigned to theme
Agglomeration economies continue to exert a powerful influence on the spatial distribution of our populations, as our largest centres continue to attract the bulk of the mobile population away from smaller settlements into their expanding suburbs and ex-urban periphery. Increasingly vulnerable to the pressure to move to areas of greater density and higher productivity are those urban settlements well outside commuting distance to metropolitan labour markets. These ‘Independent Urban Communities’, as they are now called in New Zealand, have been experiencing population decline for well over 20 years. Associated with their net decline are changes in their population composition, most notably the aging of their residents. Population decline is associated with a particular pattern of both in and out-migration. The aim of this paper is to identify the population dynamics and compositional change associated with net decline as well as explore the variety in the migration experience across the set of Independent Urban Communities. A variety of models at different scales are applied.
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