Serena Vergori, Luca Zamparini, University of Lecce, Lecce, Italy
MODELLING SEASONALITY IN A PERIPHERAL TOURISM DESTINATION (assigned to theme
Seasonality of demand is probably the main feature characterising and affecting the tourism market in most destinations. A marked seasonality hampers efficient investments and limits the possibility to create a consistent number of new job positions. Such problems have attracted both political attention and economic research. This paper analyses tourism demand in a peripheral Italian region. It is based on a monthly time series related to tourists’ arrivals and hotel nights, collected through the local administrative agency for tourism for a period of sixteen years (since January 1988 to December 2003). Data display a strong seasonal pattern according to both the Gini Coefficient and the Peak Season’s Share Index. The stationarity of the series is tested using the HEGY methodology. The paper develops an econometric analysis based on a SARIMA model, which is useful for short term forecasting. Moreover an econometric model aims at assessing the determinants of seasonality and at testing the relevance of local hotels’ prices, of Consumer Price Indices and of GDP per capita.
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