Chritof Amann, Veronika Gaube, Helmut Haberl, Juliana Lutz, Institute of Social Ecology, IFF Vienna, Klagenfurt University, Vienna, Austria
Modelling the impacts of CAP 2006 on sustainable regional development considering land use change, social structure and economic performance - An Austrian case study (assigned to theme
Industrialized agricultural regions generate numerous environmental problems, the most important being the use of pesticides and nitrate contamination. Simultaneously, these regions are confronted with an accelerated structural change and most farms are highly dependent on subsidy payments mainly regulated on an European level. Starting with 2006, the entire European system of agricultural subsidies will be re-organised with the implementation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP 2006). This new agricultural policy will have direct effects on the economic performance of agriculture but will also indirectly affect the socio-economic and ecological situation of whole regions. However, it is still unclear how the resulting transformation process will look like on the long run and if (and how) this process contributes to a sustainable regional development. This paper presents a method that helps to develop integrated scenarios for agricultural regions. Agent-based models (ABM) are applied for the description of social processes and will be linked with ecosystem models. This integrated model allows to asses mid and long-term effects induced by changes in framework conditions, i.e. by the implementation of CAP 2006 on (1) the economic performance of the region and its agricultural system, (2) on working conditions on farms (using working time as an indicator), and (3) on changed land use patterns and, accordingly, to changes in nutrient flows in the region. The results are displayed within a geographic information system (GIS). Scenarios will be developed in close co-operation with relevant stakeholders in the region. This form of scenario development enables a direct visualization of consequences such as land-use change following actions whereby the applied computer models allow a consideration of changes within the basic conditions such as modifications of farm subsidies.
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