Demographic structure and demographic process: evaluating the effect of age structure on fertility (366)

Theme Track: Migration and Demographics - Migration Flows

Authors:
Waldorf, Brigitte ; Brown, David ; Byun, Pillsung ; Cahill, Meagan ; Donelson, Angela ; Farris, Calvin ; Seacat, Melaney

In many industrialized countries low fertility levels are not constant but show cyclical variation about a low mean value. This cyclical pattern, commonly known as the 'baby boom - baby bust sequence' has given rise to the question whether it influences variations in demographic behavior. In particular, Easterlin's relative income hypothesis suggests that members of the baby boom generation will have below average fertility whereas members of the baby bust generation will have above average fertility, thereby perpetuating the cyclical behavior of fertility into the future. If the relative income hypothesis holds true then, empirically, the fertility level at any given point will be positively related to the ratio of the parental generation size to the size of the younger generation in its childbearing stage.

Ever since Easterlin published his early work in the 1960s, there has been a wealth of empirical studies linking the age structure of a population to fertility levels. Overall, the empirical results are mixed. Although the studies vary substantially by the methodology employed, the data used, and the operationalization of variables, the standard interpretation of these mixed results is that the Easterlin hypothesis holds true for anglosaxon countries, whereas for most European countries it cannot be confirmed.

This paper systematically investigates the sources of variations in the effects of age distribution on fertility. Specifically, by using a meta-analytical framework the paper will investigate whether spatial context (e.g. Europe versus anglosaxon countries) is the only source for variations in the observed effects of age distribution on fertility. Other sources addressed are the time period for the study, the method of investigation, and the operationalization of the key variables, i.e., fertility and age distribution.

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