An aggregate multiregional location model for long term traffic forecasting purposes (288)

Theme Track: Transportation - Infrastructure and Regional Development

Author:
Anderstig, Christer

The paper presents an aggregate multiregional long term location model, aimed at forecasting regional population and employment. The model consists of two equations and a set of regional "attractors", representing the quality of regional infrastructure by various accessibility measures. This general equilibrium model adjusts to equilibrium with substantial lags, where national long term population and employment constraints may be implemented. The model is one module of a comprehensive model system for regional analysis and forecasting which has recently been developed in Sweden. Expected "typical" applications are forecasts of regional development in connection with national traffic planning, and other cases where forecasts of the long term regional development is needed. The long term perspective implies that only aggregate forecast figures are relevant from a model point of view.

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