Empirical application of Alonso's theory of movements on commuting (188)

Theme Track: Methods of Spatial Analysis - Spatial Interaction Modelling

Authors:
de Vries, Jacob J. ; Nijkamp, Peter ; Rietveld, Piet

In this paper we use data on interregional commuting to estimate Alonso's Theory of Movements. The purpose is to test how well this model performs. Alonso's Theory of Movements is a spatial interaction model in which the outflows and inflows depend on the balancing factors. We apply this model to commuting. The distribution of both jobs and population are endogenous, and interdependent. Therefore the model can be interpreted as an integrated transport/land-use model. The variables to be explained by the model are the numbers of commuters from each region of residence i to each region of work j (including people living and working in the same region). From these, some interesting variables can be derived, namely the number of working people living in a region, the number of people working in a region, and in- and out-commuting of a region. Explanatory variables are residential and business characteristics of regions, as well as some measure of travel costs between these. We will investigate how well the model reproduces the data. Further, patterns in the balancing factor will be analyzed, indicating which areas are favorable to live or work in. The estimated values of the systemic parameters alpha and beta indicate in which degree jobs follow people and people follow jobs. Finally, the model can be used to predict the effect of a change in travel costs, through new infrastructure or road pricing measures, on the location of jobs and population, as well on the tension on the housing and labor markets.

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